Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/212072
Authors: 
Paloviita, Maritta
Year of Publication: 
2007
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers No. 14/2007
Abstract: 
Using European panel data and GMM system estimation, we explore the empirical performance of the standard three-equation New Keynesian macro model under different informational assumptions. As a benchmark, we consider the performance of the model under rational expectations and revised (final) data. Alternatively, instead of imposing rational expectations hypothesis we use realtime information, ie Consensus Economics survey data, to generate empirical proxies for expectations in the model and the current output gap in the Taylor rule. We demonstrate that, contrary to the assumption of rational expectations, the errors in measured expectations and real-time current output gaps are positively autocorrelated. We produce evidence that the use of real-time variables (including measured expectations) improves the empirical performance of the New Keynesian model. Relaxation of the rational expectations hypothesis makes a noticeable difference for the parameters of the New Keynesian model, especially in the Taylor rule.
Subjects: 
DSGE model
survey expectations
GMM system estimation
expectations
estimation
JEL: 
C52
E52
E20
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-952-462-377-3
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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