Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/211980 
Year of Publication: 
2004
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Finland Discussion Papers No. 12/2004
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Helsinki
Abstract: 
This paper has two objectives.The first is to identify the long-term public perception of monetary policy.The second is to identify the relationship between this perception and long-term bond rates.For German data, the use of a two-factor model of the term structure results in the best forecast of long-term interest rates for the period between January 1975 and January 2003.It also allows us to introduce as the second factor the long-term perception of inflation as a characteristic of the behaviour of monetary authorities.
Subjects: 
expectations hypothesis
monetary policy
changepoints
JEL: 
E43
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
952-462-138-X
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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