Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/211484 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 46/2019
Publisher: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
In this paper we provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the US and China. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period January 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we (1) can confirm previous findings showing a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but (2) do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries. This latter finding holds for product and country subgroups as well as for a variety of robustness checks.
Subjects: 
tariffs
US imports
trade diversion
product-level data
difference-in-differences
JEL: 
F13
F14
ISBN: 
978-3-95729-653-5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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