Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/211267
Authors: 
Moyo, Alfred
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
WIDER Working Paper No. 2019/36
Abstract: 
This paper investigates whether Southern African Development Community countries that are vulnerable to changes in oil prices could instead substitute oil and petroleum products with biofuels and gas from within the region. A pooled mean group estimator was used to determine the impact of oil prices on the gross domestic product of 15 Southern African Development Community countries. Results indicate that Mauritius, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia would be negatively affected by oil price changes. Next, two gravity models capturing bilateral trade between South Africa and Zambia and those countries identified as being vulnerable were estimated using pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood. The main finding, based on the gross domestic products of the exporter and importer countries, is that potential for trade is higher with South Africa than Zambia. This implies that these countries are more likely to import gas and biofuels from there. Transport costs are the main impediments to importing from Zambia.
Subjects: 
economic growth
global oil price
panel data models
regional integration
SADC
JEL: 
C23
F10
Q43
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-9256-670-8
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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