Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/210807 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
CBM Working Papers No. WP/05/2014
Publisher: 
Central Bank of Malta, Valletta
Abstract: 
This paper applies a multivariate filter on a small macroeconomic model to derive estimates of Malta's potential output growth, the output gap and NAIRU. These unobservable variables are derived from a system that accounts for the interactions between output, core inflation, unemployment and foreign demand, the latter reflecting the structural characteristics of Malta as a small and open economy. The model is estimated using Bayesian inference methods on quarterly data for the period 1999-2013. The estimates from the multivariate filter are compared with those derived from a univariate filter and production function approaches. The economic and financial crisis of 2009 had a negative impact on Malta's growth potential, although there are tentative signs of a gradual recovery in 2013. On the contrary, the crisis had no permanent impact on NAIRU.
JEL: 
E32
E62
H20
H50
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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