Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/210353
Authors: 
Hagelund, Kåre
Hansen, Frank
Robstad, Ørjan
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
Staff Memo No. 4/2018
Abstract: 
This paper documents a set of models used by Norges Bank in estimating the output gap. The models take into account developments in key cyclical indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, wage growth, investment, house prices and credit growth. As the output gap cannot be observed, there is no direct way of evaluating the estimated output gap. Criteria for a good estimate of the output gap can, however, be the extent to which the output gap estimates provide information about future developments in GDP growth, inflation and unemployment. Measured this way, the models have good forecasting properties compared with simple trend estimations solely based on GDP data. The forecasting properties for an average of the models are shown to be better than for each individual model. The models' estimates of the output gap also have relatively good real-time properties.
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-82-8379-040-5
Creative Commons License: 
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no
Document Type: 
Research Report
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