Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/21026
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dc.contributor.authorFertig, Michaelen_US
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Christoph M.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T16:18:44Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T16:18:44Z-
dc.date.issued2000en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/21026-
dc.description.abstractAssessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the mostrelevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken toaddress aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, andto extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed tobe known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed theusual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses thisextrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and theensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aInstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA) |cBonnen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aIZA Discussion paper series |x183en_US
dc.subject.jelJ61en_US
dc.subject.jelJ11en_US
dc.subject.jelC23en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordDemographic Structureen_US
dc.subject.keywordVariance Componentsen_US
dc.subject.keywordGMMen_US
dc.subject.stwInternationale Wanderungen_US
dc.subject.stwMobilitäten_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsstrukturen_US
dc.subject.stwMomentenmethodeen_US
dc.subject.stwEU-Erweiterungen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwOstmitteleuropaen_US
dc.subject.stwEinwanderungen_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.titleAggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streamsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn835301583en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-

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