Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/210108 
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 19/2016
Publisher: 
Norges Bank, Oslo
Abstract: 
Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze if revisions to these projections (i.e., forward guidance) can be predicted by timely information. Doing so, we find a systematic role for forward looking international indicators in predicting the revisions to the interest rate projections in all countries. In contrast, using similar indexes for the domestic economy yields largely insignificant results. Furthermore, we find that revisions to forward guidance matter. Using a VAR identified with external instruments based on forecast errors from the predictive regressions, we show that the responses to output, inflation, the exchange rate and asset returns resemble those one typically associates with a conventional monetary policy shock.
Subjects: 
monetary policy
interest rate path
forecast revisions
global indicators
JEL: 
C11
C53
C55
E58
F17
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-82-7553-951-7
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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