Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/209917
Authors: 
Bjørnland, Hilde C.
Gerdrup, Karsten R.
Jore, Anne Sofie
Smith, Christie
Thorsrud, Leif Anders
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 2009/01
Abstract: 
We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated from 1999 to 2008. The performance of the models over this period is then used to derive weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that model combination improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, when comparing the whole forecasting period; model combination outperforms Norges Banks own point forecast for inflation at the forecast horizon up to a year. By using a suite of models we allow for a greater range of modelling techniques and data to be used in the forecasting process.
Subjects: 
forecasting
forecast combination
JEL: 
E52
E37
E47
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-82-7553-483-3
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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