Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/209779 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2001
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Arbeidsnotat No. 2000/6
Verlag: 
Norges Bank, Oslo
Zusammenfassung: 
Three classes of inflation models are discussed: Standard Phillips curves, New Keynesian Phillips curves and Incomplete Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated theoretically and empirically. We establish that Standard Phillips-curve forecasts are robust to types of structural breaks that harm the Incomplete Competion model forecasts, but exaggerates forecast uncertainty in periods with no breaks. As the potential biases in after-break forecast errors for the Incomplete Competition model can be remedied by intercept corrections, it offers the best prospect of successful inflation forecasting.
Schlagwörter: 
monetary policy
inflation targeting
wages and prices
model specification
encompassing
model uncertainty
forecasting
JEL: 
C32
C51
C52
C53
E31
E52
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
82-7553-163-2
Creative-Commons-Lizenz: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
Erscheint in der Sammlung:

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
450.48 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.