Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/208344
Authors: 
Baumann, Ursel
Gómez Salvador, Ramón
Seitz, Franz
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2310
Abstract: 
We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes (recessions, low growth and high growth) for economic activity at the global level and in advanced and emerging economies. In a second part, we find that the regimes of the Markov Switching models can be well explained with activity, survey and commodity price variables within a discrete choice framework, specifically multinomial logit models, therefore reinforcing the economic interpretation of the regimes.
Subjects: 
Global GDP
Markov Switching
multinomial logit
turning points
JEL: 
C34
C35
E32
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-3879-2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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