Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/208325 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2019
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2291
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
The Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection exercises constitute an important input to the ECB's monetary policy. This work marks a thorough analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projection errors by looking at criteria of optimality and rationality using techniques widely employed in the applied literature of forecast evaluation. In general, the results are encouraging and suggest that Eurosystem/ECB staff projections abide to the main characteristics that constitute them reliable as a policy input. Projections of GDP - up to one year - and inflation are optimal - in the case of inflation they are also rational. A main finding is that GDP forecasts can be substantially improved, especially at long horizons.
Schlagwörter: 
Eurosystem/ECB forecasts
Forecast evaluation
Forecast errors
JEL: 
C53
E37
E58
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-3553-1
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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