Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/207126
Authors: 
Geiger, Martin
Güntner, Jochen
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 1913
Abstract: 
We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in crude oil production. We find that the adverse effects of negative oil supply shocks are transmitted mainly through the demand side, as both output and interest rates react more strongly to oil supply shocks that shift the U.S. aggregate demand curve, while the supply side matters in transmitting oil supply shocks to consumer prices.
Subjects: 
Business cycles
oil supply shocks
structural VAR estimation
transmission channels
JEL: 
C32
E30
Q41
Q43
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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