Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/205642 
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
New Zealand Treasury Working Paper No. 13/18
Publisher: 
New Zealand Government, The Treasury, Wellington
Abstract: 
The Treasury has been testing the assumptions on the potential growth rate of the New Zealand economy. In this paper, we estimate a small macro model using Bayesian techniques, which allows us to assess the level of uncertainty of the estimates of the output gap. The model is based on the work of Benes et al. (2010) with some modifications reflecting New Zealand economic conditions. Although this new technique does not reduce the uncertainty in measures of potential output as indicated by large confidence bands for the estimates, it provides us a useful tool with an economic framework for measuring potential output.
Subjects: 
Potential output
Potential growth rate
Output gap
Unemployment
NAIRU
Inflation and Capacity
JEL: 
C32
C53
E31
E32
ISBN: 
978-0-478-40362-6
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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