Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205630
Authors: 
Creedy, John
Makale, Kathleen
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
New Zealand Treasury Working Paper No. 13/06
Publisher: 
New Zealand Government, The Treasury, Wellington
Abstract: 
This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.
Subjects: 
Population
projections
stochastic simulation
social expenditure
fiscal costs
New Zealand
JEL: 
E61
H50
J11
ISBN: 
978-0-478-40301-5
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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