Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205611
Authors: 
Parkyn, Oscar
Year of Publication: 
2010
Series/Report no.: 
New Zealand Treasury Working Paper No. 10/08
Publisher: 
New Zealand Government, The Treasury, Wellington
Abstract: 
Existing methodologies for estimating a government's structural budget balance are reviewed and applied to the case of New Zealand. Besides the conventional cyclical adjustment, an assessment is made of other possible non-structural elements to the budgetary position, including the terms of trade, asset prices and unbalanced growth. A key result is that the terms-of-trade boom, which began in the late 2000s, is associated with around 1% of GDP in tax revenues that may not be structural. Uncertainty surrounding cyclically-adjusted balance estimates is presented using fan charts.
Subjects: 
fiscal policy
business cycle
terms of trade
asset prices
JEL: 
E62
H62
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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