Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205512
Authors: 
Bryant, John
Year of Publication: 
2003
Series/Report no.: 
New Zealand Treasury Working Paper No. 03/07
Publisher: 
New Zealand Government, The Treasury, Wellington
Abstract: 
Many policy models require assumptions about future population trends. Sensitivity tests for these assumptions are normally carried out by comparing population projection variants. This paper outlines some of the conditions that variant-based sensitivity tests must meet if they are to be informative. It then describes four common situations where these conditions are not met, so that conventional sensitivity tests are not informative. The solution, the paper argues, is stochastic population projections.
Subjects: 
Demography
Sensitivity testing
Population projections
Policy modelling
JEL: 
C52
E17
J11
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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