Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205488
Authors: 
Claus, Edda
Claus, Iris
Year of Publication: 
2002
Series/Report no.: 
New Zealand Treasury Working Paper No. 02/13
Publisher: 
New Zealand Government, The Treasury, Wellington
Abstract: 
This paper constructs a composite index of leading indicators of New Zealand employment. The choice of variables and their weights in the composite index are determined by their concordance with employment. The composite index is included in an indicator model to forecast quarterly employment growth. The indicator model explains about 67 percent of the quarterly variation in employment, in sample, and correctly predicted the direction of next period employment almost 80 percent of the time, out of sample.
Subjects: 
Composite index of leading indicators
forecasting
employment
JEL: 
C53
E37
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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