Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/204363 
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
IFRO Working Paper No. 2013/16
Publisher: 
University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO), Copenhagen
Abstract: 
This paper forecasts the spatial distribution of Danish husbandry production from 2009 until 2025. The study builds on a time series data set (1999 – 2009) for the number of livestock units (including piglets, finishers, sows, dairy cattle and young stock) measured by 1km2 grid cells for the whole of Denmark. A Markov Chain Model (MCM) was applied to estimate transition probabilities for the future livestock intensity composition, divided into state classes. Neighbouring effects between grid cells were not included. The modelled transition probabilities fit the data very well in all state classes, except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented. The strategic objective of the model is to provide data for the spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production which can form the basis for a location analysis for future biogas plants.
Subjects: 
structural changes
Markov Chain Models
biogas
agriculture
JEL: 
Q47
Q16
Q21
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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