Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/204181
Authors: 
Leitner, Sandra M.
Marcias, Manuel
Mirza, Daniel
Stehrer, Robert
Stöllinger, Roman
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
wiiw Research Report No. 409
Publisher: 
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), Vienna
Abstract: 
Global trade patterns are changing rapidly. Emerging economies are increasing their share of exports overall and intensifying competition in nearly all sectors. Low-cost advantage initially helped emerging economies, particularly China, penetrate low technology labour intensive sectors. More recently, emerging economies have started to compete in higher value-added sectors where European industries have traditionally had comparative advantage. Greater trade integration has also led to a dispersion of value chains well beyond national borders, increasing the granularity of trade. In this rapidly changing context, it is valuable to predict the future profile of EU exports so that the results can inform current policy. Using a model based approach this report examines the future profile of EU exports at sector and aggregate level in terms of trade volumes and quality competitiveness. A value chain approach allows then to quantify impacts on sectoral value added and GDP.
Subjects: 
trade patterns
gravity
scenarios
quality of trade
GDP impact
JEL: 
F14
F17
F63
Document Type: 
Research Report

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