Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/203604
Authors: 
Weiske, Sebastian
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2019: 30 Jahre Mauerfall - Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft - Session: Macroeconomics II No. C20-V2
Abstract: 
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were highly correlated with the output gap in the past and (ii) that are ideally not subject to revisions. According to a real-time analysis, indicator-based estimates prove to be more reliable than estimates from international institutions. Currently, estimates point to positive output gaps in the euro area.
Subjects: 
Business Cycles
Output Gap
Real-time Estimation
Business Survey Data
JEL: 
E32
E37
E6
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

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