Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/203544
Authors: 
Gerling, Lena
Kellermann, Kim Leonie
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2019: 30 Jahre Mauerfall - Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft - Session: Political Economy - Elections III No. E14-V1
Abstract: 
This paper investigates the effect of aggregate-level information shocks regarding support for a populist right-wing party on the individual disposition to report a respective political preference in survey interviews. Despite controversial debates about the social acceptability of its nationalist and xenophobic program, the German AfD has succeeded to enter the state parliaments as well as the federal parliament in the wake of steadily growing support among the electorate. We apply an event-study approach which links election information shocks provided by official results of state-level elections in Germany and the individual disposition to report an AfD preference. Exploiting quasi-random variation in survey interviews conducted closely around state elections, we show that individual exposure to positive election information shocks significantly increases the probability of reporting an AfD vote intention by around 5 percentage points.
Subjects: 
Voting behavior
populist parties
collective decision-making
contagion effects
information shocks
JEL: 
D71
D72
D91
I24
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

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