Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2019: 30 Jahre Mauerfall - Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft - Session: International Finance No. B14-V3
This article introduces a new indicator to measure redenomination risks in Euro area countries. The measure is based on survey data. The influence of this indicator in determining sovereign bond yield spreads is tested using an ARDL-approach. The results for ten EMU countries in the period June 2012 to May 2019 show that the risk of a depreciation is almost abandoned for most Euro area countries, i.e. the former crisis countries Ireland and Portugal. If anything an appreciation may occur for some countries once they leave the EMU. The only countries facing depreciation problems once leaving the monetary union are Italy and to some extent Spain.