Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/201369
Title (translated): 
Finland’s Growth Performance – The Lost Decade and the Prospects in the Near Term
Authors: 
Kaitila, Ville
Kauhanen, Antti
Kuusi, Tero
Lehmus, Markku
Maliranta, Mika
Vihriälä, Vesa
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
ETLA Report 87
Abstract (Translated): 
In the report we analyse the reasons for the weakness of Finland’s economic performance over the past decade and assess the growth prospects in the coming 5 years. The weakness of Finland’s performance relative to comparative EU-countries since 2009 can largely be explained by the collapse of Nokia’s production and the deterioration of cost competitiveness. The recovery in turn stems from a stronger export market growth, the fading away of the negative Nokia shock, and the improvement of cost competitiveness. Of the rise of employment by some 100 000 jobs since 2015 about half can be explained by a number of policy measures to increase labour supply and the so-called competitiveness pact. Based on a realistic assumption on productivity growth, we estimate that Finland could achieve an annual growth rate of about 2 per cent in the coming 5 years. This requires, nevertheless, that the employment rate increases by 2023 to the level reached by comparative countries. Although such a change would not be greater than what is taking place during the current government period, ambitious reforms are needed to achieve this.
Subjects: 
Growth
Employment
Productivity
Labour supply
Competitiveness
Finland’s economy
JEL: 
E37
E61
E62
F10
J11
J20
O11
Document Type: 
Research Report

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