Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/201316
Title (translated): 
Forecast Models for Private Consumption
Authors: 
Peussa, Aleksandr
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
ETLA Report 34
Abstract (Translated): 
The share of private consumption in gross domestic product is significant; therefore, private consumption has a great influence on economic growth, which makes it a major concept in economics. The purpose of the paper is to estimate and evaluate different forecasting models for private consumption. The first part of the paper focuses on the aggregate consumption. The models are estimated using yearly and quarterly data. The goal of second part of the paper is to estimate and evaluate forecasting models for the components of private consumption. Private consumption can be divided by the duration principle or by product categories. There are three competing statistical models for components of private consumption. All models are presented in the second part of the report and the aim is to choose the best model using statistical methods of model evaluation (R-squared, AIC, BIC).
Subjects: 
Aggregate consumption
Private consumption
Economic forecasts
Logistic regression
JEL: 
C43
C52
C53
E21
E27
C82
Document Type: 
Research Report
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