Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/201248 
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
ETLA Working Papers No. 33
Publisher: 
The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA), Helsinki
Abstract: 
In this paper, we quantify time-varying fiscal multipliers using Finnish economic data and address questions about the design of the fiscal adjustment currently needed to comply with the EU's fiscal targets. We find that the necessary adjustment is likely to be larger than what is proposed in the current fiscal plans. The consolidation measures slow the economic recovery, and their cumulative multiplier effect on economic activity is close to 1 in the period 2016-2019. Despite the large fiscal multipliers, we do not find significant benefits in delaying the fiscal consolidation in terms of the present value of the GDP, at least given the current economic forecasts. Our results suggest that the emphasis of the government's fiscal plans on net revenue measures (defined as gross revenues minus transfers) seems to be well-placed.
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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