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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2016
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] KDI Journal of Economic Policy [ISSN:] 2586-4130 [Volume:] 38 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] Korea Development Institute (KDI) [Place:] Sejong [Year:] 2016 [Pages:] 1-20
Verlag: 
Korea Development Institute (KDI), Sejong
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper, we conduct uniform inference of two widely used versions of the Phillips curve, specifically the random-walk Phillips curve and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). For both specifications, we propose a potentially time-varying natural unemployment (NAIRU) to address the uncertainty surrounding the inflation-unemployment trade-off. The inference is conducted through the construction of what is known as the uniform confidence band (UCB). The proposed methodology is then applied to point-ahead inflation forecasting for the Korean economy. This paper finds that the forecasts can benefit from conducting UCB-based inference and that the inference results have important policy implications.
Schlagwörter: 
Timevarying NAIRU
Randomwalk Phillips curve
NewKeynesian Phillips curve
Uniform confidence band
Model validation
Inflation forecasting
JEL: 
C12
C13
C14
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