Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/200699 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2019
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Hamburg Contemporary Economic Discussions No. 66
Verlag: 
University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Chair for Economic Policy, Hamburg
Zusammenfassung: 
We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors. Subjects (n=44) are presented a series of 50/50 gambles that each involves a potential gain and a potential loss, and subjects can choose to either accept or reject a displayed lottery. From this data, we use information on 8800 individual lottery gambles and specify four predictor-sets that include different combinations of input categories: lottery design, socioeconomic characteristics, past gambling behavior, eye-movements, and various psychophysiological measures that are recorded during the first three seconds of lottery-information processing. The results of our forecasting experiment show that choice-process data can effectively be used to forecast risky gambling decisions; however, we find large differences among models' forecasting capabilities with respect to subjects, predictor-sets, and lottery payoff structures.
Schlagwörter: 
Forecasting
lottery
risk
choice-process tracing
experiments
machine learning
decision theory
JEL: 
C44
C45
C53
D87
D91
ISBN: 
978-3-942820-47-9
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
4.11 MB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.