Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/199068 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2019
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ifo Working Paper No. 294
Verlag: 
ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, increasing the importance of imports for total output. Since imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross domestic product. We introduce the first leading indicator constructed to forecast import growth, the Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the domestic country should be reflected in the expected export developments of its main trading partners. A foreign country’s expected exports are, in turn, determined by its trading partners’ business and consumer confidence and its own price competitiveness. In a real-time forecasting experiment, the Import Climate outperforms standard business cycle indicators at short horizons for France, Germany, Italy, and the United States for the first release of data. For Spain and the United Kingdom, our indicator works particularly well with the latest vintage of data.
Schlagwörter: 
Import climate
import forecasting
survey data
price competitiveness
JEL: 
F01
F10
F17
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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