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dc.contributor.authorSawischlewski, Katjaen
dc.contributor.authorMenkhoff, Lukasen
dc.contributor.authorBeckmann, Danielaen
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T16:07:13Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T16:07:13Z-
dc.date.issued2005-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/19796-
dc.description.abstractEarly warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Keeping this in mind, five lessons emerge : First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, among competing crisis definitions there is one which is most practical. Third, take a logit model to condense information from various fundamental variables. Fourth, add a regional contagion dummy to the standard set of variables. Fifth, one may be tempted to address instability over time and countries by taking shorter samples and regional EWSs.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aVerein für Socialpolitik, Ausschuss für Entwicklungsländer |cHannoveren
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aProceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 |x3en
dc.subject.jelF31en
dc.subject.jelF33en
dc.subject.jelF37en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordearly warning systemen
dc.subject.keywordcurrency crisesen
dc.subject.keywordemerging marketsen
dc.titleRobust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems-
dc.typeConference Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn500741735en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:gdec05:3476en

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