Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/197963 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 18/2019
Publisher: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
This paper examines the dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on yield, wages, and prices in the Indian agricultural sector. We distinguish between positive and negative rainfall shocks and explicitly consider their spatial dimension (local/regional). We find that particularly negative regional shocks exert adverse effects. The enormous drop in agricultural yield is short-lived, but elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices). Negative local shocks affect only wages, but not prices. This indicates that, in the food market, intra-regional trading mitigates the impact of local shocks. However, in the labour market, the arbitrage mechanism through migration appears substantially weaker.
Subjects: 
rainfall shocks
agricultural yield
wages
food prices
JEL: 
C33
E32
O13
Q11
ISBN: 
978-3-95729-588-0
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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