Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/197925
Authors: 
Adam, Klaus
Matveev, Dmitry
Nagel, Stefan
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2019-11
Abstract: 
Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the literature on asset pricing are consistent with the survey evidence. We empirically test (1) the notion that survey forecasts constitute rational but risk-neutral forecasts of future returns, and (2) the notion that survey forecasts are ambiguity averse/robust forecasts of future returns. We find that these alternative hypotheses are also strongly rejected by the data, albeit for different reasons. Hypothesis (1) is rejected because survey return forecasts are not in line with risk-free interest rates and because survey expected excess returns are predictable. Hypothesis (2) is rejected because agents are not always pessimistic about future returns, instead often displaying overly optimistic return expectations. We speculate as to what kind of expectations theories might be consistent with the available survey evidence.
Subjects: 
Asset pricing
Financial markets
Economic models
JEL: 
G10
G12
Document Type: 
Working Paper
Social Media Mentions:

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.