Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/197905
Authors: 
Champagne, Julien
Bellisle, Guillaume-Poulin
Sekkel, Rodrigo
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper No. 2018-52
Abstract: 
We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests. Finally, we study changes in the predictability of the Canadian economy following the announcement of the inflationtargeting regime in 1991. Our database is unprecedented outside the United States, and our evidence is particularly interesting, as it includes over 30 years of staff forecasts, two severe recessions and different monetary policy regimes. The database will be made available publicly and updated annually.
Subjects: 
Monetary policy
Economic models
Inflation targets
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL: 
C32
E17
E37
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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