Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/19725 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2008
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Discussion Paper Series 1 No. 2008,14
Verlag: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of many institutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has not been investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England?s risk forecasts for inflation. We find that these forecasts do not contain the intended information. Rather, they either have no information content, or even an adverse information content. Our results imply that under mean squared error loss, it is better to use the Bank of England?s mode forecasts than the Bank of England?s mean forecasts.
Schlagwörter: 
Forecast evaluation
risk forecasts
Bank of England inflation forecasts
JEL: 
C53
C12
E37
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
599.13 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.