Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/196675 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 12177
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
Disparities in cross-city pandemic severity during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic remain poorly understood. This paper uses newly assembled historical data on annual mortality across 438 U.S. cities to explore the determinants of pandemic mortality. We assess the role of three broad factors: i) pre-pandemic population health and poverty, ii) air pollution, and iii) the timing of onset and proximity to military bases. Using regression analysis, we find that cities in the top tercile of the distribution of pre-pandemic infant mortality had 21 excess deaths per 10,000 residents in 1918 relative to cities in the bottom tercile. Similarly, cities in the top tercile of the distribution of proportion of illiterate residents had 21.3 excess deaths per 10,000 residents during the pandemic relative to cities in the bottom tercile. Cities in the top tercile of the distribution of coal-fired electricity generating capacity, an important source of urban air pollution, had 9.1 excess deaths per 10,000 residents in 1918 relative to cities in the bottom tercile. There was no statistically significant relationship between excess mortality and city proximity to World War I bases or the timing of onset. Together the three statistically significant factors accounted for 50 percent of cross-city variation in excess mortality in 1918.
Subjects: 
influenza
pandemic
mortality
air pollution
JEL: 
N32
N52
N72
Q40
Q53
O13
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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