Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19658
Authors: 
Weber, Sebastian
Döpke, Jörg
Year of Publication: 
2006
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2006,29
Abstract: 
We analyse stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has witnessed a high growth rate is likely to stay in a regime of high growth or is bound to switch in a regime of low growth in the subsequent period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position.
Subjects: 
business cycles
firm growth
Markov chains
JEL: 
D21
D92
E32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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