Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19646
Authors: 
Hofmann, Boris
Year of Publication: 
2006
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2006,18
Abstract: 
This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as well as trivariate two-pillar Phillips Curve type forecasting models. The results suggest that monetary indicators are still useful indicators for inflation in the euro area, but that a thorough and broad based monetary analysis is needed to extract the information content of monetary developments for future inflation.
Subjects: 
euro area
inflation
leading indicators
money
JEL: 
E31
E40
C32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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