Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/195619
Authors: 
Zolghadr, Mohammad
Niaki, Seyed Armin Akhavan
Niaki, S. T. A.
Year of Publication: 
2018
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Industrial Engineering International [ISSN:] 2251-712X [Volume:] 14 [Year:] 2018 [Issue:] 3 [Pages:] 491-500
Abstract: 
The primary objective of this research is to obtain an accurate forecasting model for the US presidential election. To identify a reliable model, artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) models are compared based on some specified performance measures. Moreover, six independent variables such as GDP, unemployment rate, the president's approval rate, and others are considered in a stepwise regression to identify significant variables. The president's approval rate is identified as the most significant variable, based on which eight other variables are identified and considered in the model development. Preprocessing methods are applied to prepare the data for the learning algorithms. The proposed procedure significantly increases the accuracy of the model by 50%. The learning algorithms (ANN and SVR) proved to be superior to linear regression based on each method's calculated performance measures. The SVR model is identified as the most accurate model among the other models as this model successfully predicted the outcome of the election in the last three elections (2004, 2008, and 2012). The proposed approach significantly increases the accuracy of the forecast.
Subjects: 
Presidential election
Forecasting
Artificial neural network
Support vector regression
Linear regression
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Document Type: 
Article
Social Media Mentions:

Files in This Item:
File
Size
444.63 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.