Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/195156
Authors: 
Floris, Joël
Kaiser, Laurent
Mayr, Harald
Staub, Kaspar
Woitek, Ulrich
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper 316
Abstract: 
When a negative shock affcts a cohort in utero, two things may happen: first, the population suffers detrimental consequences in later life; and second, some will die as a consequence of the shock, either in utero or early in life. The latter effect, often referred to as culling, may induce a bias in estimates of later life outcomes. When the health shock disproportionately affects a positively selected subpopulation, the long-term effects are overestimated. The 1918 flu pandemic was plausibly more harmful to mothers of high socioeconomic status, as a suppressed immune system in mothers of low socioeconomic status may have been protective against the most severe consequences of infection. Using historical birth records from the city of Bern, Switzerland, we assess this concern empirically and document that a careful consideration of culling is paramount for the evaluation of the 1918 flu pandemic and other fetal health shocks.
Subjects: 
fetal origins hypothesis
1918 flu pandemic
culling
survivorship bias
JEL: 
I10
I15
I18
N34
J24
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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