Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/193934
Authors: 
Russo, Marianna
Bertsch, Valentin
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
ESRI Working Paper 597
Abstract: 
Managing the risk associated with uncertain load has always been a challenge for retailers in electricity markets. Yet the load variability has been largely predictable in the past, especially when aggregating a large number of consumers. In contrast, the increasing penetration of unpredictable, small-scale electricity generation by consumers, i.e. self-generation, constitutes a new and yet greater volume risk. Using value-at-risk metrics and Monte Carlo simulations based on German historical loads and prices, the contribution of decentralized solar PV self-generation to retailers' load and revenue risks is assessed. This analysis has implications for the consumers' welfare and the overall efficiency of electricity markets.
Subjects: 
Electricity market
Solar photovoltaic
Self-generation
Retailers' risk
Monte Carlo CVaR
JEL: 
C10
C50
G10
Q42
Q48
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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