Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/193181
Authors: 
Holmes, Douglas R.
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Economics Discussion Papers 2019-18
Abstract: 
Narratives are under-theorised and until recently under-recognised as core variables influencing the speed and direction of changes in expectations and, therefore, as core macroeconomic variables that shape the policy processes of central banks. The author examines below how the thousands of micro-level narratives garnered on a regular basis by the Bank of England's staff of regional agents can inform what Ricardo Reis and Alan Blinder (Understanding the Greenspan standard, 2005) term the "macroeconomic allegories" that influence monetary policy decision-making. The contacts that make up the "network" perform descriptive, explanatory, and interpretive labor in situ putting words both to the ephemera of local expectations across the UK and to the rapidly changing competitive pressures unfolding in global markets. Internal studies have demonstrated that the micro-level narratives collected and scored by the agents provide the most reliable information on the future course of the British economy of any of the projections or forecasts available to the Bank.
Subjects: 
central banks and their policies
role and effects of psychological
emotional
social
and cognitive factors on the macro economy
JEL: 
E47
E58
E71
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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