Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/192658 
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Papers No. 676
Publisher: 
Statistics Norway, Research Department, Oslo
Abstract: 
Official forecasts for oil revenues and the burden of pensioners are used to estimate forward-looking fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking with respect to oil and gas revenues. Solvency of the government finances might be an issue with the fiscal rules estimated from historical data. Simulation suggests that declining oil and gas revenue and the costs of a rapidly graying population will substantially deteriorate the net government asset position by 2060 unless fiscal policy becomes more prudent or current pension and fiscal reforms are successful.
Subjects: 
oil windfalls
official forecasts
forward-looking fiscal policy rules
permanent income hypothesis
graying population
debt sustainability
JEL: 
H20
H63
Q33
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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