Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/192541 
Year of Publication: 
2008
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Papers No. 559
Publisher: 
Statistics Norway, Research Department, Oslo
Abstract: 
The regional natural gas markets are expected to gradually become more integrated. The major driving forces are lower LNG costs, more spot trade, and increased need for imports into the US and other key markets. In this paper we examine various scenarios for a future global gas market, particularly focusing on natural gas prices and trade patterns. We use a numerical model of the international energy markets, with detailed modelling of regional gas production and international gas transport. Scenarios with different assumptions about future demand and supply conditions are simulated. Our results suggest that trade between continents will grow considerably over the next couple of decades, and that prices in the main import regions will remain around current levels. However, significant constraints on exports from the Middle East may alter this picture.
Subjects: 
Natural gas trade
gas prices
numerical model
JEL: 
C61
F17
L95
Q31
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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