Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/192136 
Year of Publication: 
1995
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Papers No. 152
Publisher: 
Statistics Norway, Research Department, Oslo
Abstract: 
The Norwegian export price for an aggregated commodity is modelled assuming price-setting behaviour. The focus is on the choice between backward- and forward looking models. The dynamics is modelled according to three different approaches; a backward looking error correction model and two forward looking models where rational expectations are assumed. The first forward looking model is derived from a multiperiod quadratic loss function imposing backward-forward restrictions on the parameters. The results from this specification are not encouraging. We then allow data to choose the lead structure, resulting in a less restrictive forward looking model. The backward- and forward looking models are compared to an estimated cointegrating vector for the long-run solution. An encompassing test on the backward- and forward looking model indicates that further research should look for a model that encompasses both of them.
Subjects: 
Export prices
Imperfect competition
Multiperiod loss function
Rational expectations
Error correction models
JEL: 
C22
D84
F12
Document Type: 
Working Paper
Document Version: 
Digitized Version

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