Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/191680
Authors: 
Isenah, Godknows M.
Olubusoye, Olusanya E.
Year of Publication: 
2016
Citation: 
[Journal:] CBN Journal of Applied Statistics [ISSN:] 2476-8472 [Volume:] 7 [Year:] 2016 [Issue:] 1 [Pages:] 179-208
Abstract: 
The study aimed at determining a set of superior generalized orthogonal-GARCH (GO-GARCH) models for forecasting time-varying conditional correlations and variances of five foreign exchange rates vis-à-vis the Nigerian Naira. Daily data covering the period 02/01/2009 to 19/03/2015 was used, and four estimators of the GO-GARCH model were considered for fitting the models. Forecast performance tests were conducted using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) and the model confidence set (MCS) tests procedures. The DM test indicates preference for the GO-GARCH model estimated with nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimator - denoted as GOGARCH-NLS, while the MCS test determined a set of superior models (SSM) which comprised of GO-GARCH-NLS and GOGARH model estimated by the method-of-moment, denoted as GO-GARCH-MM. These models were deemed best and adequate for forecasting of the five exchange rate dynamics.
Subjects: 
MGARCH
GO-GARCH
conditional heteroscedasticity
volatility
time-varying correlation
JEL: 
C32
C53
F31
Document Type: 
Article
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