Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/191314
Authors: 
Asongu, Simplice
Nwachukwu, Jacinta C.
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
AGDI Working Paper WP/17/052
Abstract: 
We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics.
Subjects: 
Arab Spring
Political Instability
Timing
Economic Growth
JEL: 
N17
O11
O20
O47
P52
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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