Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/190435 
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
IEHAS Discussion Papers No. MT-DP - 2016/11
Publisher: 
Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics, Budapest
Abstract: 
The possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union will have profound economic and political effects. Here we look at a particular aspect, the power distribution in the Council of the European Union. Since the Lisbon treaty the exit does not require new negotiations as the success of a voting initiative only depends on the number and total population of the supporting member states. Using the Shapley-Shubik power index we calculate the member states' powers with and without the United Kingdom and update earlier power forecasts using the Eurostat's latest population projections. There is a remarkably sharp relation between population size and the change in power: Brexit increases the largest members', while decreases the smallest ones' powers.
Subjects: 
European Union
Council of the European Union
qualified majority voting
power index
a priori voting power
demographics
JEL: 
C71
D72
ISBN: 
978-615-5594-44-1
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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