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dc.contributor.authorKranendonk, Henk C.en
dc.contributor.authorBonenkamp, Janen
dc.contributor.authorVerbruggen, Johan P.en
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T15:53:14Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T15:53:14Z-
dc.date.issued2004-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/18839-
dc.description.abstractSince 1990 the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses a leading indicator inpreparing short-term forecasts for the Dutch economy. This paper describes some recentmethodological innovations as well as the current structure and empirical results of the revised CPBleading indicator. Special attention is paid to the role and significance of IFO data. The structure of theCPB leading indicator is tailored to its use as a supplement to model-based projections, and thus has aunique character in several respects. The system of the CPB leading indicator is composed of tenseparate composite indicators, seven for expenditure categories (?demand?) and three for the mainproduction sectors ('supply?). This system approach has important advantages over the usual structure,in which the basis series are directly linked to a single reference series. The revised system, which uses25 different basic series, performs quite well in describing the economic cycle of GDP, in indicatingthe upturns and downturns, and in telling the story behind the business cycle.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aCenter for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo) |cMunichen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aCESifo Working Paper |x1200en
dc.subject.jelE37en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordleading indicatoren
dc.subject.keywordshort-term forecastsen
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturindikatoren
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturprognoseen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwNiederlandeen
dc.titleA leading indicator for the Dutch economy : methodological and empirical revision of the CPB system-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn856600016en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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