Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/185807
Authors: 
Lustenberger, Thomas
Rossi, Enzo
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
WWZ Working Paper 2018/05
Abstract: 
We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both models, but are rarely supported by yield forecasts. In half of the countries, a higher precision of public information regarding interest rates increases welfare. During forward guidance, public information is less precise than private information.
Subjects: 
value of information
beauty contest
interest rate forecasts
bond yield forecasts
strategic forecasts
central bank transparency
forward guidance
JEL: 
D8
E43
E52
E58
G1
G29
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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