Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18575
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dc.contributor.authorMiddendorf, Torgeen_US
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Torstenen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T15:48:44Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T15:48:44Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/18575-
dc.description.abstractIt is unclear whether the exceptionally highU.S. current account deficit can besustained for a prolonged period. In this paper we approach the topic whethera gradual adjustment or a pronounced reduction of the deficit is likely to occur.We therefore characterize the dynamics of the current account deficitmovements by a three-regime Markov-Switching model. Our finding is that itis possible to distinguish a regime of a strong increasing deficit, a just slightlyincreasing deficit and a regime of a deficit reduction. Furthermore we find thatmovements of the deficit are asymmetric.Whereas expansions of the currentaccount deficit are long lasting, reductions of the deficit are rather short. Thisimplies that a pronounced reduction is not likely to occur. Secondly we try touncover determinants of regime shifts of the current account. Applying orderedLogit models we conclude that a combination of U.S. inflation, U.S. investmentand share prices predicts pronounced changes in the current accountdeficit quite reliably.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisheren_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aRWI Discussion Papers |x24en_US
dc.subject.jelC22en_US
dc.subject.jelF32en_US
dc.subject.jelC25en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordMarkov-Switching Modelen_US
dc.subject.keywordOrdered Logiten_US
dc.subject.keywordIndicatorsen_US
dc.subject.stwLeistungsbilanzen_US
dc.subject.stwZahlungsbilanzungleichgewichten_US
dc.subject.stwMarkovscher Prozessen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwVereinigte Staatenen_US
dc.subject.stwregime switchingen_US
dc.titleCharacterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficiten_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn474229157en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:rwidps:24-

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